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Below that group is the need to stand by our former Afghan allies, likely numbering in the tens of thousands. Many of them chose to stay but will soon become kidnapping targets, potentially joining Mark Frerichs as hostages being held by the Taliban or adjacent organizations in an attempt to maximize their leverage for the negotiations to come. At the top of that list is the need to ensure the safety of the Americans left behind, which reportedly number in the hundreds. We have other interests there as well, but not vital ones. We are now in a race with the Salafi Jihadist groups there to see who will succeed first: the terrorists in achieving a safe haven and then building their external attack capabilities, or us constructing a consistently effective over-the-horizon counterterrorism program. I don’t know how long it will take before this race will be decided, but I suspect we will know the likely results by the end of President Biden’s first term. Unfortunately, the Taliban reconquest has made securing this interest much more of a challenge. As has been the case since Osama bin Laden moved there from Sudan back in 1996, we have one vital national security interest in Afghanistan: the need to prevent it from being used as a base from which terrorists can attack Americans. The US withdrawal is complete, but our interests and thus missions remain. Richard LeBaron: Biden’s wise words Now comes the race against the terrorists
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Nathan Sales: Hold firm against the Taliban’s ‘charm offensive’ Katz: Was Afghanistan really ‘different’?īarbara Slavin: It’s time to lead by exampleĪndrás Simonyi: Europeans will continue counting on AmericaĪrun Iyer: Proof of failing US policy toward PakistanĮmma Ashford: The US should hold itself accountable for its failures Nilofar Sakhi: A terrorist safe haven again? Clarke Cooper: Shaky territory for US alliances
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Warrick: How to accelerate refugee processing This is what the next phase looks like.Ĭhristopher Preble: Time for hard questions: Why did US policy fail?ĭaniel Fried: The lessons to learn-and not learnīrian O’Toole: Taliban carrots and sticks Wechsler: Now comes the race against the terroristsīarry Pavel: The war’s not over. This post will be continuously updated as we receive more expert assessments of the withdrawal and its aftermath. We reached out to experts from across the Atlantic Council, many of whom have worked on Afghanistan policy at the highest levels of government, for their reactions and thoughts on what comes next. What’s next for Afghanistan? How will evacuations proceed without the US military controlling Kabul airport? What’s next for the counterterrorism mission? How will other regional and global powers shape the country the United States leaves behind? The final US troops departed Afghanistan on Monday shortly before midnight local time, ceding the country to Taliban control ahead of US President Joe Biden’s August 31 deadline-and nearly twenty years after the United States first invaded the country. AugExperts react: The US withdrawal from Afghanistan is complete.
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